Another complex global shock is not a matter of if, but when.The UN needs to be ready.
A pandemic. A war. A climate disaster. When they hit, they cascade around the world and outrun the institutions built to respond. In 2024, 193 governments agreed the UN's response has to change. We are making sure that promise becomes a plan.
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The case, in brief
About our campaign
Our ask: The UN must establish mechanisms and processes that enable it to more quickly and more effectively mount a coordinated response to complex global shocks. Different stakeholders, inside and outside the UN system, must take more proactive measures to turn this into a reality.
To the Secretary-General and relevant UN entities
Apply lessons learned to the next shock
We urge the Secretary-General and relevant UN entities to consolidate the operational lessons of recent system-wide responses, such as the Global Crisis Response Group, into pre-agreed coordination arrangements and responses that can be activated quickly when the next complex global shock occurs. Establishing this readiness in advance would spare the UN from having to build coordination mechanisms during a crisis and would not require the creation of new standing authorities or altering existing mandates.
Include stakeholders in designing mechanisms for managing complex global shocks
We urge the Secretary-General and relevant UN entities to include the private sector, civil society, and Member States in the development of new protocols and procedures for responding to complex global shocks. The very nature of complex global shocks requires the expertise and input of all relevant parties in order to design governance mechanisms that will have legitimacy and capacity for the next crisis.
To the candidates for Secretary-General
Commit to reform
We urge candidates for Secretary-General to commit to strengthening the UN system's anticipation of and response to complex global shocks through permanent structural reforms with support from the General Assembly. The perceived role of the UN in global affairs has diminished over the past few decades because, in part, the UN has not been seen as effectively managing complex global shocks. Whether the fault or perception is fair or otherwise, the incoming Secretary-General can help put the UN on the right track for future complex global shocks through serious reforms.
To UN Member States
Support a fair evaluation of ambitious and creative solutions
We urge Member States and the General Assembly to approach future negotiations on how best to manage complex global shocks in good faith. Managing complex global shocks requires a willingness to embrace ambitious and creative thinking to meet the extreme needs of the 21st-century threat landscape. Reasonable parties will disagree on the specific solutions to better manage complex global shocks at the multilateral level. However, all Member States should recognize that the current multilateral mechanisms for governing complex global shocks have been insufficient and that new and ambitious approaches are needed.
To civil society organizations
Prioritize better management of complex global shocks in your engagements
We urge civil society organizations across social sectors to build support for a stronger, more comprehensive UN response to such shocks. We ask you to familiarize yourself with the concept and how the policy issue has developed in the UN system, and to raise the world's vulnerability to such shocks in your engagements with Member States and with relevant UN bodies. Each civil society group will have its own public interests and missions, but the poor management of complex global shocks affects all areas of common interest.
Three features set complex global shocks apart from more contained crises:
An event "with severely disruptive consequences for a significant proportion of the global population" that leads to secondary impacts cascading across multiple sectors. UN Secretary-General's policy brief defining complex global shocks
- Systemic and cascading
- Overwhelming
- Compounding and overlapping
A two-year window that will decide whether the UN system is ready to govern the next Complex Global Shock
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The policy window
The Executive Office of the Secretary-General is drafting approaches and will “consult with Member States” on ways to strengthen the United Nations system’s approach to complex global shocks. Read Action 54a.
The SG transition
The incumbent Secretary-General's term ends 31 December 2026. A new Secretary-General takes office in January 2027, with a comprehensive review of the Pact for the Future to follow in 2028, the next formal chance to strengthen Action 54.
Resources
Read, share, and reuse
Case studies, expert analysis, and the evidence base behind our case for reform, ready to brief, cite, or share.
Analysis from champions and experts
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The Next UN Secretary-General Will Inherit a System Unfit for the Next Complex Global Shock
Read the article →
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Globally critical infrastructure and complex global shocks
Investigates complex global shocks through the lens of disruption to certain infrastructure systems, facilities, and assets that can have negative consequences for global societies.
Coming soon
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Global stresses: a long timeline
A long-timeline view of global stresses building toward complex global shocks.
Coming soonHow past shocks tested the UN system
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COVID-19 pandemic
How COVID-19 hit across UN bodies and the SDGs, and how the multilateral system struggled to respond in a coordinated way.
Download the COVID-19 snapshot (PDF) ↓
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Russia–Ukraine war
How the multilateral system responded to the war's food, energy, and finance shocks, including the UN's Global Crisis Response Group.
Coming soon
Strait of Hormuz closing
Using the Strait of Hormuz as an example of a complex global shock, particularly for agriculture, energy, and other critical supply chains.
Coming soon
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AI and global complex shocks
How AI is changing the nature, speed, and complexity of global complex shocks.
Coming soon
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Climate tipping points and global complex shocks
Translating the Global Tipping Points Report 2025 into complex-global-shocks thinking.
Coming soonTimeline
From a proposal to a pact
Our Common Agenda
The Secretary-General proposes an "Emergency Platform": a standing mechanism to convene a coordinated UN response to any major global shock.
The Emergency Platform policy brief
The UN elaborates the proposal, recommending the Secretary-General hold standing authority to convene the platform automatically, for a fixed period.
Negotiation
Civil society pushes for a binding mechanism. Member states negotiate a more open-ended text. The term "Emergency Platform" itself is dropped.
Adoption of the Pact for the Future
193 member states adopt the Pact by consensus, including Action 54, a commitment to consider ways to strengthen the UN's response to complex global shocks.
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What organizations have already published on this issue
The evidence base behind this campaign. Every item below is existing published policy work from organizations working to improve multilateral governance and reduce catastrophic risks.
- United Nations for the Future — a Collection of Key Texts for Long-term GovernanceJuly 2021
- Setting Expectations for Global Catastrophic Risk Mitigation Through Policy ChangeJune 2021
- Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 2: Strengthening the International Response to Complex Global ShocksMarch 2023
- Hazards with Escalation Potential — Governing the Drivers of Global and Existential CatastrophesSeptember 2023
- The first UN Global Risk Report: A welcome addition with room for future ambitionJuly 2025
FAQ
Background & common questions
What is a "complex global shock"?
An event with severely disruptive consequences for a significant share of the global population, whose effects cascade across multiple sectors at once. Think COVID-19, or the knock-on food and energy effects of the war in Ukraine, rather than a single-country, single-sector crisis.
What is Action 54?
Action 54 is the commitment in the UN's 2024 Pact for the Future in which member states recognize the need for a more coherent international response to complex global shocks and ask the Secretary-General to consider ways to strengthen that response. It reads in full:
Consider approaches to strengthen the United Nations system response to complex global shocks, within existing authorities and in consultation with Member States, that supports, complements and does not duplicate the response of the United Nations principal organs, relevant United Nations entities, United Nations coordination entities and mechanisms, and specialized agencies mandated to respond to emergencies, and with full respect for the mandated coordination role of the United Nations in response to humanitarian emergencies.
How can my organization get involved?
Share the campaign toolkit with your networks, cite the case studies and analysis in your own policy work, and get in touch through the contact form below if you'd like to collaborate on briefings or events.
Get in touch
Talk to the campaign team
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Press & media. Journalists on deadline: communications@globalshieldpolicy.org. We aim to reply the same working day, and can arrange interviews with the campaign's policy leads.